Israeli strikes in Iran: Gasoline prices will increase by "about ten euro cents" by the end of next week, according to an expert.

Following the Israeli strikes that occurred overnight from Thursday to Friday, oil prices rose 10% in one day. A rise that was already in the making before the strikes, explains Philippe Chalmin, a commodities economist and hydrocarbon expert.

As an agreement on Iranian nuclear power was about to be reached between Tehran and Washington, Israel launched massive attacks on Iran on the night of Thursday to Friday, June 13 , immediately causing movements in stock market prices.

These Israeli strikes, which primarily targeted Iran's nuclear program , not only risk escalating the region, but also led to an immediate 10 to 12 percent rise in oil prices . But this rise, which comes in a rather contained context recently, will not reach the exorbitant prices we have seen, according to Philippe Chalmin, an economist specializing in raw materials and an expert on hydrocarbons.

franceinfo : Iranians on the ground fear a fuel shortage. Should we expect supply shortages in France ?

Philippe Chalmin: Supply tensions, no. A price increase is quite likely. Roughly speaking, the price of a barrel has gone from $65 to $75. And generally, it's estimated that a dollar on the barrel translates—taking into account all exchange rate and other factors—to around 1 cent per liter at the pump. So that means that by the end of next week, we should be paying about ten cents more for our gas.

But if the intense strikes promised by Israel were to hit Iranian oil facilities, would a shortage be a possibility? Iran is one of the ten largest oil producers in the world.

Yes, but Iran doesn't weigh that heavily on the world market. Iran actually has the world's fourth-largest oil reserves, roughly 10% of the world's oil reserves. But out of a global production of around 102 or 103 million barrels per day, Iran produces 3.5 million. And since the Iranians consume a lot, their exports, recently, were around 1.4 to 1.7 million barrels per day. So it's not huge.

"The bulk of their exports go to China - and it is China that is practically the main financial backer of the Iranian regime at the moment."

Philippe Chalmin, economist and expert in hydrocarbons

to franceinfo

The crisis also threatens a highly strategic passageway for oil from the Gulf countries: the Strait of Hormuz. Could Iran possibly block this passage?

This is the main reason why the markets have reacted so much over the past three days. Because, in fact, the rise had begun before the Israeli attacks. The main reason is that we must expect Iranian reactions. There is little chance that Iran will attack the oil installations of the southern Gulf countries. But on the other hand, it can indeed, without too much trouble—or difficulty—block or at least significantly impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That's 20% of global production, but in reality, almost a third of global flows, and therefore of exported oil. And then, we must also take into account the LNG tankers that pass through there. All of Qatar's liquefied natural gas exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. But before committing to what would be a final gesture—blocking Hormuz—Iran would seek the advice of China, which is the buyer of three-quarters of Iranian oil exports. And it is oil revenues that provide the budget and funding for Iran's armed forces. So it seems to me that China would not view a blockade of Hormuz very favorably, of which it would also be an indirect victim, both for oil and natural gas exports, but also for container ship traffic, etc., in the Gulf region.

So, indirectly, China is protecting the Strait of Hormuz. But if prices have skyrocketed, is there a risk of things getting even worse, just two weeks before the big summer departures?

No one really knows what will happen in the next four or five days. The Israeli strikes continue.

"The Iranian reaction will come. In what form? We don't know. And for now, in this uncertainty, oil prices are extremely volatile."

Philippe Chalmin

to franceinfo

We saw a rise of around 12%, around ten dollars a barrel. This is a stronger rise than the one we saw in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine. So we find ourselves at levels of 75 dollars a barrel, which are not historically the highest. In July 2008, the price of a barrel of oil reached its record at 147 dollars and rose to 130 dollars at certain times a little later.

Forecasters are starting to consider $130.

It still seems totally excessive to me, given that just before the events, we were on a downward trend. The global market was in surplus, and a number of us thought we would end the year around $60 a barrel. The direct impact on the global market is roughly limited to the 1.5 million barrels per day exported by Iran, most of which goes to China. OPEC countries, Saudi Arabia in particular, have 3 or 4 million barrels per day of available capacity that they can put back on the market. And it's not in their interest for oil to rise above $100 a barrel.

And for liquefied natural gas, which passes through the Strait of Hormuz, is there also a risk of price increases?

Yes, it's the same problem as Hormuz. Qatar is the world's second or third largest producer of liquefied natural gas—along with the United States and Australia. While for oil, Hormuz can be bypassed—terminals are starting to appear outside the strait—there is no solution for liquefied natural gas. That could, quite significantly, push prices up. But I repeat, the blockage of Hormuz is truly a catastrophic scenario that, with all the precautions we can take, doesn't seem entirely realistic to me.